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The Trump administration’s requiring agencies to eliminate two rules for every new rule (“one in, two out”) has received a great deal of but little analysis of how it has worked in practice. Has the order chilled regulation that imposes new costs altogether? Or have agencies added new rules that impose costs while diligently eliminating old ones? Or have agencies managed to skirt the order and issue rules that impose new costs without providing deregulatory offsets? In short, how has the order actually affected rulemaking?These questions can be more fully addressed now that the order has been in effect for approximately 18 months. This piece analyzes two key questions. First, have agencies under Trump issued new rules with costs?

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If so, what motivated these rulemaking efforts and how did they justify such rules? Second, did agencies issue deregulatory rules to offset new rules that impose costs? If so, were these deregulatory rules meaningful or relatively minor?In brief, this piece finds that Trump administration agencies issued very few new rules that imposed regulatory costs. Most such rules were required by statute or were otherwise routine. On the flipside, Trump agencies also did relatively little deregulation outside of delaying and repealing rules issued late in the Obama administration. On balance, then, the picture is one of inaction.

The Trump administration has halted the growth of regulation that imposes costs but so far has left the existing regulatory framework largely in place. Backgroundand implementing from the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and its Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) applies to agencies that have long submitted their rules to OMB for review ( such as the Federal Communications Commission are exempt from such review). Under the order, agencies must remove two existing rules for each new they issue.

In guidance, OMB has created a number of important exceptions to this “one in, two out” rule. Most importantly, it does not apply to rules or guidance documents that are: 1) deemed to be “” (e.g., less important on policy grounds) by OMB; 2) required by statute; 3) impose little or no costs; 4) relate to national security; or 5) transfer payments to beneficiaries of programs (e.g., Medicare payment rules).

This piece analyzes the extent to which OMB has granted these exemptions to agencies. Has the Trump Administration Imposed New Regulatory Costs?Total rulemaking is under the Trump administration. While this result is important, it begs an additional question: to what extent have rules issued under Trump imposed regulatory costs? This piece draws on data from the Government Accountability Office’s (GAO) and from OMB’s database to analyze this question (these databases have somewhat for research).The short answer is that Trump era agencies have not issued many rules that impose costs. From the start of the Trump administration to July 15, 2018, agencies subject to the executive order issued only 39 Such rules are generally those deemed as having a $100 million annual impact on the economy, a widely accepted if somewhat rough measure of the subset of important rules (a broader measure of important rules used by OIRA yielded similar results) 1.The vast majority of the 39 major rules issued under Trump did not impose significant regulatory costs.The vast majority of the 39 major rules issued under Trump did not impose significant regulatory costs. Instead, these rules were mostly mandatory and routine.

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The rules, which are listed in the, fall into the following categories:. Deregulatory rules initiated by the Trump administration (8). Withdrawals and delays of Obama-era rules (6). Removal of rules disapproved by Congress and the President pursuant to the Congressional Review Act (3). Periodic update rules (18). Examples include fishing quotas, medical reimbursement rates, hunting season rules, annual EPA standards (fuel, water, and air quality), patent fees, and passport fees. Rules implementing changes dictated by statutes (2).

New regulations (2)Only the final category, new regulations, imposes the type of regulatory costs targeted by the order. The other rules are either deregulatory, routine and required updates, or legally required changes that entail little agency discretion.Only one of the 39 major rules truly falls into the category of imposing new regulation 2. The Department of Energy’s rule on standards for walk-in freezers and coolers did impose new regulatory costs but it reflected consensus negotiations among relevant stakeholders, reducing opposition. Perhaps for this reason, the rule received only 19 comments, most of which were favorable 3. The Department recognized the rule’s compliance costs but also monetized significant benefits from energy savings. This rule therefore suggests that a high level of consensus and perhaps quantified benefits are sufficient in limited cases to impose new regulatory costs. In any case, the overall picture is clear: the Trump administration stayed true to its rhetoric and did not issue costly new rules.

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Has the Trump Administration Issued Deregulatory Rules?While the above discussion shows that Trump administration imposed few new regulatory costs, this section suggests that it has also done relatively little deregulation. The most comprehensive accounting of Trump-era deregulation comes from OIRA. In December 2017, OIRA a list of all 66 total deregulatory offsets for Fiscal Year 2017. The deregulatory efforts, which are listed in the, fall into the following categories:. New deregulatory rules finalized by the Trump administration (24). This category includes allowing importation of additional food products (5), Endangered Species Act determinations (4), and changes in immigration visa caps (2). And Tuesday, December 5, 2017 ConclusionsTo date, Trump administration agencies have issued few new rules that imposed regulatory costs and at the same time did relatively little deregulation outside of delaying and repealing late Obama-era rules.

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Put differently, the growth of regulation has been largely halted but the existing regulatory framework has largely. These results may be at least partly the product of “start-up” costs. Any new administration requires time to establish a team and set its priorities and there are some that this process has started to yield some results.

Once these steps are accomplished, it takes time to draft new rules, seek public comment, and finalize rules. Future work, including a frequently updated, will shed light on whether the current picture of inaction changes as time passes.As time passes, the administration may also need to issue rules that impose costs to further its policy agenda. Assuming they are issued, it will be interesting and important to analyze how OIRA applies the offset and regulatory budgeting provisions of the executive order to such rules. These questions will have an important impact on future debates over reform of the rulemaking process and the administrative state more broadly.The SEC disclaims responsibility for any private publication or statement of any SEC employee or Commissioner. The Article expresses the author’s views and does not necessarily reflect those of the Commission or other members of the staff.The author did not receive any financial support from any firm or person for this article or from any firm or person with a financial or political interest in this article.

He is currently not an officer, director, or board member of any organization with an interest in this article. Footnotes. OMB evaluates all rules that it deems “significant.” This category is somewhat broader than “major rules.” Only 30 such “significant” rules came through OIRA during Fiscal Year 2017 (by contrast the GAO data extend to July 15, 2018, an additional 9.5 months) and these rules were predominantly mandatory and routine. A Department of Homeland security rule requiring additional advance screening for commercial aircraft entering the United States also imposed quantifiable costs but was exempt as relating to national security.